Food for Thought
The table is green. But are the numbers correct?
The report shows a number with two decimal places. Next to it is a green symbol. In the next meeting, it becomes an argument: “Progress is on track.” Yet nobody can say where the number came from or when it was last checked.
Displaying information precisely does not make the information itself precise. And a neatly formatted table does not turn an assumption into a fact.
Every piece of information has a state
Before we base decisions on figures, we should know whether they are confirmed and current, still unknown, unconfirmed, outdated, contradictory or currently unavailable. These states are not interchangeable.
For example, a supplier has estimated a lead time of six weeks. Until there is a reliable commitment, that number is a planning hypothesis. If the project status later simply says “Delivery time: six weeks”, with no qualification, an estimate has become a promise in the wording.
Even data from a valid source may be outdated. And two reliable sources can produce different results when they measure different things.
The decision test
Take the two or three figures on which an important recommendation rests. For each one, ask: Who collected it? When? What exactly does it measure? Is it an observation, an estimate or a forecast?
Then comes the most important question: Would our decision change if this figure turned out to be wrong? If so, checking it takes priority over further polishing the report's presentation.
The aim is not to eliminate all uncertainty. Some decisions have to be made under uncertainty. But then we should know which uncertainty we accept, who bears the consequences and when the decision will be reviewed.
Observation: A number is presented as certain in the report. Open question: Is it sufficiently supported by evidence? My position: Anyone who says “We do not know” is not providing a worse basis for a decision. They are protecting others from mistaking a supposition for certainty.
Further thinking: Uncertainty is information and The human decides. The system creates clarity..
Context: The six states of information are an editorial classification drawn from published Hosang Consulting texts. The numerical example is invented, expressly illustrative and not a client case.